Heavy Morning Downpours Kick Off Severe Weather Awareness Week in Memphis

Sunday Weather Outlook: A Soggy Start for the Bluff City

Memphis residents waking up this Sunday morning, February 15, 2026, should prepare for a drenching start to the day. The National Weather Service and local meteorological models indicate a significant weather system moving through the Mid-South, bringing heavy rainfall and overcast conditions to the metropolitan area. As the city enters mid-February, today’s forecast serves as a potent reminder of the region's transition into more active weather patterns.

Morning Deluge and Temperature Trends

The morning hours will see the brunt of the day's precipitation. Forecasters are calling for a 99% chance of rain throughout the early half of Sunday, with moderate to heavy downpours expected to peak before noon. Rainfall totals could reach nearly 1.5 inches in some parts of Shelby County, potentially leading to minor ponding on roadways and localized drainage issues. If you are heading out for morning services or early errands, expect visibility to be reduced during the heaviest bursts of rain.

Temperatures this morning will hover in the upper 40s to low 50s. Despite the wet conditions, the air remains relatively mild for February. Wind speeds are expected to be noticeable, sustained at approximately 14 mph coming from the south-southeast, with occasional higher gusts that may make the rain feel even more intrusive.

Afternoon Transition and Evening Clearing

By the afternoon, the steady rain is predicted to taper off, leaving behind a thick layer of cloud cover. While the threat of heavy downpours will diminish, the dampness will linger as the high temperature reaches a projected 56°F. The atmosphere will remain mostly overcast through the mid-afternoon hours, providing a brief reprieve for those needing to get outdoors without a heavy raincoat.

The evening forecast offers the best news for the day. As the cold front pushes further east, skies are expected to begin clearing. The humidity will drop, and the overnight low is forecast to settle around 49°F. This gradual clearing sets the stage for a much drier start to the upcoming work week.

Special Notice: Severe Weather Awareness Week

Today marks the beginning of Tennessee Severe Weather Awareness Week, which runs from February 15 through February 21, 2026. Local officials are using today's rainy conditions to encourage Memphians to review their emergency plans and safety protocols. Key highlights for the day include:

• Rainfall Intensity: Nearly 1.5 inches of total precipitation expected by late morning.
• Wind Hazards: Sustained winds of 14 mph with higher gusts possible during storm cells.
• Safety Prep: Ensure your NOAA weather radio is programmed and your mobile alerts are active as we enter this awareness week.

While no severe thunderstorms or tornadic activity are currently warned for today, the volume of rain and the onset of Awareness Week serve as a vital call to action for all residents to stay weather-aware as we approach the spring season.